机器人未来技术前沿交叉研判研究报告

丁汉等
摘要

机器人技术作为21世纪最具颠覆性的科技领域之一,正以前所未有的速度重塑人类的生产与生活方式,成为全球科技竞争的战略制高点。本报告以未来机器人技术在智能制造、生活服务、养老辅助等领域的科学意义和战略价值剖析为视角,系统分析了国内外机器人技术的发展现状、差距及未来趋势,提出了推动我国机器人前沿交叉技术发展的思路与政策建议。

在智能制造领域,将机器人、人工智能、传感技术、先进制造技术深度融合,衍生出机器人化智能制造这一前沿交叉方向,为大型复杂构件的高性能制造提供了变革性手段,推动了制造业向高端化、智能化转型。相比于传统数控机床,机器人化智能制造装备具有运动灵活度高、工作空间大、拓扑结构灵动可变、多机并行协调作业能力强等优势,能够适应更加复杂多变的加工环境,提升制造系统的灵巧性和人机交互能力。机器人化智能制造是机器人技术、制造技术和信息技术等面向高端制造业的交叉融合,是继机床技术之后解决航空、航天、航海等领域大型复杂构件高端制造瓶颈的必由之路。

在生活服务领域,机器人技术通过提升生活便利性与效率、解决劳动力短缺问题、推动服务行业智能化升级等方式,深刻改变着人类的生活方式。机器人化生活服务通过深度融合人工智能、物联网、大数据等前沿技术,赋予服务系统智能化、自适应和协同作业能力,旨在解决传统服务模式中“效率低”、“成本高”、“体验差”三大核心问题,为家庭、医疗、教育、餐饮等领域提供高效、精准、个性化的服务解决方案。机器人化生活服务不仅是技术创新的产物,更是多学科交叉融合的结果,其与材料科学、信息科学、生物医学等基础学科深度融合,推动了服务机器人技术的快速发展。

在养老辅助领域,随着人口老龄化的加剧,养老机器人技术的突破成为应对社会老龄化挑战的关键举措。养老机器人通过感知-认知-决策-执行的闭环系统,实现对老年人生理、心理需求的精准识别、智能响应和柔顺操作,为解决人口老龄化带来的健康照护等挑战性难题提供科技支撑。相比于传统养老服务模式,养老机器人具有全天候服务能力、精确感知与量化评估能力、可复制与标准化等优势,能有效弥补人工照护的时间局限、主观性及人力短缺等问题。养老机器人是机器人学、人体运动机能学、神经科学等交叉学科研究的重要载体,通过养老机器人的深入研究,将有力提升认知科学的研究水平,促进对人类自然智能的形成、自然智能的机械复现、人机自然交互以及人类运动行为与认知机理等科学问题的深入理解。

在国内外态势研判方面,针对当前以人形机器人、养老机器人、机器人化智能制造为代表的未来机器人新形态、新模式,分析了其在柔韧性、响应特性、智能决策能力等方面存在的差距,探讨了其与人工智能、心智理论、自律操作等技术的融合趋势,研判了机器人未来技术的三大发力点,即模拟人智能决策过程的机器人“大脑”,模仿生物复杂任务灵巧操作的机器人“小脑”,实现机器人环境适应的刚柔耦合“机械肢”。同时,梳理了人工智能、传感技术、新材料研发等多方面前沿研究成果,这些成果将助力机器人智能化,实现以人形机器人为代表的未来机器人形态在智能制造、养老助老等方面的广泛应用。

在关键科学问题和核心技术问题方面,本报告系统剖析了机器人领域所面临的智能决策、灵巧操作和环境适应三大核心科学问题和技术难题。在智能决策方面,亟需突破非结构化环境下的自主学习和推理能力,以应对复杂多变的非结构化环境;在灵巧操作方面,需要解决高精度运动控制和精细力反馈等技术瓶颈,以完成精细化操作任务;在环境适应方面,则面临着多模态感知和动态调整能力的提升挑战,以应对复杂多变的工作环境。这些科学问题和技术难题的解决需要多学科交叉融合,涉及机械工程、人工智能、计算机科学、材料科学等多个领域。

在发展思路与政策建议方面,本报告提出了一系列推动我国机器人前沿交叉技术发展的思路与政策建议。首先,在能力建设方面,建议大力发展具身智能、AI芯片和灵巧操作等前沿技术的协同创新,推动机器人技术向智能化、高效化和精细化方向发展。其次,在人才培养方面,建议秉承“教育-科技-人才”一体化人才培育理念,培养机器人领域战略科学家与学术领军人才,打造国际领先的创新团队。再次,在伦理建设方面,建议推进人机共融伦理准则、标准体系动态更新与分类监管机制,推动机器人技术向规范化、安全化和包容性方向发展。最后,在组织保障方面,建议以国家战略统筹、资源整合强化为关键抓手,构建多方协同组织保障体系,形成推动机器人技术创新与产业升级的强大合力。

综上所述,机器人是面向未来、融合创新的多学科交叉技术,为推动我国科技进步、助力国民经济与社会发展提供新动能和新质生产力。通过加强机器人未来技术的研发与应用,我国有望在全球机器人技术竞争中占据制高点和技术引领,为提升我国在机器人前沿技术领域的自主创新能力、推动产业升级和经济社会可持续发展提供关键支撑。

Abstract

As one of the most disruptive technological fields of the 21st century, robotics is reshaping human production and lifestyles at an unprecedented pace, becoming a strategic high ground in global technological competition. To analyze the scientific significance and strategic value of future robotics technologies in areas such as intelligent manufacturing, life services, and elderly care assistance, this report systematically examines the current status, gaps, and future trends of robotics technology development both domestically and internationally. It proposes ideas and policy recommendations to advance the development of cutting-edge interdisciplinary robotics technologies in China.

In intelligent manufacturing, the deep integration of robotics, artificial intelligence, sensing technology, and advanced manufacturing techniques has given rise to the emerging interdisciplinary direction of robotized intelligent manufacturing. This approach provides transformative methods for the high-performance manufacturing of large and complex components, driving the manufacturing industry toward high-end and intelligent transformation. Compared to traditional computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools, robotized intelligent manufacturing equipment offers advantages such as higher flexibility in motion, larger working space, dynamically reconfigurable topological structures, and enhanced multi-robot parallel coordination capabilities. These features enable robots adapt to more complex and variable processing environments, improving the agility and human-machine interaction capabilities of manufacturing systems. Robotized intelligent manufacturing represents the interdisciplinary convergence of robotics, manufacturing, and information technologies, serving as the essential pathway to address high-end manufacturing bottlenecks in aerospace, maritime, and other fields following the era of machine tool technology.

In the life services sector, robotics technologies are profoundly changing human lifestyles by enhancing convenience and efficiency, addressing labor shortages, and promoting the intelligent upgrading of service industries. Robotics-enabled life services deeply integrate cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and big data, endowing service systems with intelligent, adaptive, and collaborative capabilities. This approach aims to solve the three core issues of traditional service models: “low efficiency,” “high costs,” and “poor experiences,” providing efficient, precise, and personalized service solutions for households, healthcare, education, catering, and other fields. Robotics-enabled life services are the product of technological innovation and interdisciplinary integration. Their deep convergence with foundational disciplines such as materials science, information science, and biomedical science has accelerated the development of service robotics technologies.

In the elderly care assistance domain, with the intensification of population aging, breakthroughs in elderly care robotics have become a critical measure to address the challenges of societal aging. Elderly care robots, through a closed-loop system of perception-cognition-decision-execution, achieve precise identification, intelligent response, and compliant operation of the physiological and psychological needs of the elderly, providing technological support for solving challenging issues such as health care arising from population aging. Compared to traditional elderly care models, these robots offer advantages such as round-the-clock service capabilities, precise perception and quantitative assessment, and replicability and standardization, effectively compensating for time constraints, subjectivity, and labor shortages of human care. Elderly care robots are important carriers of interdisciplinary research in robotics, human kinesiology, and neuroscience. In-depth research on elderly care robots will significantly advance cognitive science, promoting a deeper understanding of scientific issues such as the origins of human natural intelligence, the mechanical replication of natural intelligence, human-robot natural interaction, and the mechanisms of human motor behavior and cognition.

To assess domestic and international trends, this analysis focuses on emerging forms and models of future robotics, exemplified by humanoid robots, elderly care robots, and robotized intelligent manufacturing. It highlights the significant gaps between these technologies and human capabilities in flexibility, responsiveness, and sophisticated decision-making. The discussion explores the integration trends of robotics with artificial intelligence, cognitive theory, and autonomous operation technologies. Furthermore, it identifies three key areas for future robotics development: the robot “brain” that simulates human intelligent decision-making processes, the robot “cerebellum” that mimics the dexterous operation of complex tasks in biological systems, and the rigid-flexible coupled “mechanical limbs” that enable environmental adaptation for robots. Simultaneously, leveraging advancements in artificial intelligence, sensing technologies, and new materials research will drive the intelligent evolution of robotics, paving the way for the widespread application of future robotic forms, particularly humanoid robots, in areas such as intelligent manufacturing and elderly care assistance.

Regarding key scientific issues and core technical challenges, this report systematically analyzes three fundamental scientific problems and technical difficulties in robotics: intelligent decision-making, dexterous manipulation, and environmental adaptation. In terms of intelligent decision-making, there is an urgent need to break through barriers in autonomous learning and reasoning in unstructured environments to cope with complex and dynamic scenarios. For dexterous manipulation, critical challenges such as high-precision motion control and fine-force feedback must be resolved to accomplish delicate operational tasks. As for environmental adaptation, the key challenge lies in enhancing multimodal perception and dynamic adjustment capabilities to respond effectively to ever-changing working conditions. Addressing these scientific and technical challenges requires interdisciplinary convergence, involving mechanical engineering, artificial intelligence, computer science, and materials science. 

Concerning development strategies and policy recommendations, a series of ideas and proposals have been put forward to advance the frontier interdisciplinary technologies of robotics in China. First, in terms of capability building, it is recommended to vigorously promote the collaborative innovation of cutting-edge technologies such as embodied intelligence, AI chips, and dexterous manipulation, driving robotics technology toward greater intelligence, efficiency, and precision. Second, regarding talent development, it is advised to uphold the integrated talent cultivation concept of “Education-Science & Technology-Talent”, fostering strategic scientists and academic leaders in the robotics field to build internationally leading innovation teams. Third, in ethical governance, it is suggested to advance human-robot coexistence ethical guidelines, dynamically update standard systems, and establish a classification-based regulatory framework, steering robotics technology toward standardization, safety, and inclusivity. Finally, in organizational support, it is proposed to prioritize national strategic coordination and resource integration as key drivers, constructing a multi-stakeholder collaborative support system to create a powerful synergy for promoting robotics innovation and industrial upgrading. 

In summary, robotics represents a forward-looking, interdisciplinary technology that integrates innovation across multiple fields, providing new momentum and high-quality productivity for advancing China's technological progress and supporting national economic and social development. By strengthening the research, development, and application of future robotics technologies, China has the potential to secure a leading position in global robotics competition and drive technological leadership. It will provide critical support for enhancing independent innovation capabilities in cutting-edge robotics technologies, driving industrial technological advancement, and promoting sustainable economic and social development.

机器人未来技术前沿交叉研判 项目组

本项目由中国科学院学部资助