气候系统会发生突然的、快速的、大幅度的、超出人类承受能力的变化。当一个临界点被触发之后，可能会像推倒多米诺骨牌一样，推动地球气候系统倒向另外一个临界点，放大气候变化的影响，从而引起气候、人类和生物系统发生大规模灾难甚至是毁灭级的气候破坏。因此，理解气候-生态突变并作出适应性变化成为当前应对气候变化的核心关键。

目前，生态系统对气候变化及极端因素事件的响应和其应对突然生态变化的潜力成为国际学术前沿，受到持续关注，并催生新的研究机遇。“气候-生态突变”这一主题涉及现代气候学、古气候学、生态学、地质学、地理学、数理科学、信息科学等学科领域，是一个多学科交叉的前沿领域。在科学意义层面，气候-生态突变研究涉及多学科交叉，有助于深化对全球气候变化的理解，并促进地球复杂系统演化特性的研究。在战略价值层面，该研究可保障我国应对气候变化政策和社会经济决策的科学性，提升我国适应和应对气候变化实际行动的能力，促进发展预测预警技术方法以服务社会经济发展。

气候-生态突变研究涉及多尺度、多层次和多手段的方法。从时间尺度来看，气候、生态变化领域涉及季节、年际、十年或百年甚至更长的直到地质时间尺度的宽广时域；从空间尺度来看，气候、生态变化领域涉及流域、区域、全球等不同尺度。时空尺度跨度较大是该领域的突出特征，不同时空尺度的要素存在相互影响和响应，这也进一步加剧了该领域研究的复杂性。不同尺度的研究方法不尽相同，呈现交叉融合和日趋复杂的趋势。

依据科学性、基础性、可能性等相关准则，围绕“弹性变化时空过程-突变阈值及机理-科学识别突变-预警与预测”的逻辑，“气候-生态突变”领域的关键科学问题与核心技术问题包括：

（1）不同时空尺度下气候和生态系统突变的模式是怎样的，尤其是突变中各要素之间的相互作用关系如何？

（2）不同时空尺度的突变之间的级联作用和远程耦合关系是怎样的？

（3）如何量化系统弹性变化及突变阈值，进而揭示系统突变的特征和规律？

（4）如何有效融合监测短期数据和古环境数据，结合模型模拟等多学科交叉研究，定量不同时空尺度下气候-生态系统突变的阈值和弹性？

（5）如何深入揭示驱动-响应关系，尤其是厘清系统线性渐变、非线性突变的驱动机制？

（6）多重驱动力长期相互作用下，系统发生突变的过程是怎样的？

（7）如何厘清不同气候-生态系统反馈及互馈关系？特别是在长期变化过程中，系统正负反馈机制的改变过程和机理是什么？

（8）如何准确识别地球系统临界要素？如何确定临界要素的阈值？

（9）如何识别我国的关键临界要素并揭示其突变机制？如何评估当前系统的突变风险？

（10）如何科学预测未来气候和生态突变事件风险，进而采取相应的措施？

（11）如何确立不同生态系统在气候和人类活动驱动下的突变阈值、边界范围及典型系统的生态安全空间？

（12）如何应对气候-生态突变？

（13）如何利用突变的积极影响，规避消极影响？

最后，报告从数据观测平台与技术、学科建设与人才培养两个方面提出保障措施，以推动气候-生态突变研究。一是要建立长期、稳定的数据观测平台，加强观测系统部署，发展“天-空-地-海”立体协同监测技术，构建气候-生态突变基础数据库。二是要促进气候学、生态学、地质学等学科的交叉融合，培养战略科学家、战术科学家及青年后备人才，加强国际合作，发起全球性研究计划。

The climate system can undergo sudden, rapid, and drastic changes that exceed human tolerance. Once a tipping point is triggered, it may set off a chain reaction, much like a domino effect, propelling the Earth's climate system toward another tipping point, thereby amplifying the impact of climate change and potentially causing large-scale disasters or even catastrophic devastation across climate, human, and biological systems. Therefore, understanding climate-ecological abrupt changes and implementing adaptive adjustments are crucial to addressing climate change.

At present, the response of ecosystems to climate change and extreme events, as well as their capacity to cope with sudden ecological changes, have become the cutting edge of international academic research, attracting continuous attention and spawning new research opportunities. The theme of “climate-ecological abrupt change” involves a wide range of disciplines, including modern climatology, paleoclimatology, ecology, geology, geography, mathematical and physical sciences, and information science. It is an interdisciplinary frontier field. From a scientific perspective, research on climate-ecological abrupt changes involves interdisciplinary integration, which helps deepen the understanding of global climate change and promotes the study of the evolutionary characteristics of the Earth's complex systems. Strategically, this research can ensure the scientific basis for China's climate change policies and socio-economic decision-making, enhance China's ability to adapt to and combat climate change, and foster the development of predictive and early warning technologies that support socio-economic development.

Research on climate-ecological abrupt changes involves multi-scale, multi-level, and multi-method approaches. Regarding temporal scale, the field of climate and ecological changes spans a broad temporal domain from seasonal, interannual, decadal to centennial and even geological time scales. Spatially, it encompasses different scales ranging from river basins to regions and the globe. The large span of spatial and temporal scales is a prominent feature of this field, with elements at different scales interacting and responding to each other, which further increases the complexity of research. Research methods at different scales vary and exhibit a trend of cross-integration and increasing complexity.

Based on the principles of scientific rigor fundamental importance, and practical feasibility, the key scientific issues and core technological problems in the field of “climate-ecological abrupt changes” revolve around the logic of “spatial-temporal process of resilience change - tipping point and mechanism of abrupt changes - scientific identification of abrupt changes - early warning and prediction.” These include:

1. What are the patterns of abrupt changes in climate and ecosystems at different spatial and temporal scales, especially the interactions among various elements during these abrupt changes?

2. What are the cascading effects and remote coupling relationships between abrupt changes at different spatial and temporal scales?

3. How can we quantify the changes in system resilience and tipping points to reveal the characteristics and patterns of abrupt changes in the system?

4. How can we effectively integrate short-term monitoring data with paleoenvironmental data, and combine this with multi-disciplinary research methods such as model simulation, to quantitatively determine the tipping points and resilience of climate-ecological abrupt changes at different spatial and temporal scales?

5. How can we thoroughly reveal the driving mechanisms of linear gradual changes and nonlinear abrupt changes in the system, especially clarifying the system’s response mechanisms?

6. What is the process of abrupt changes in the system under the long-term interaction of multiple driving forces?

7. How can we clarify the feedback and mutual feedback relationships among different climate-ecological systems, especially the changes in positive and negative feedback mechanisms during long-term variations?

8. How can we accurately identify the critical elements of the Earth's system and determine their tipping points?

9. How can we identify the key critical elements in China and reveal their mechanisms of abrupt changes? How can we assess the current system's risk of abrupt changes?

10. How can we scientifically predict the risks of future climate and ecological abrupt change events and implement corresponding measures?

11. How can we establish the tipping points and boundary ranges of different ecosystems under the drivers of climate and human activities, as well as the ecological safety space of typical systems?

12. How can we respond to climate-ecological abrupt changes?

13. How can we leverage the positive impacts of abrupt changes and mitigate the negative impacts?

Finally, the report outlines safeguard measures to promote research on climate-ecological abrupt changes in the following two aspects:

First, data observation platforms and technologies: Establish long-term and stable data observation platforms, enhance the deployment of observation systems, develop “space-air-ground-sea” integrated monitoring technologies, and construct a foundational database for climate-ecological abrupt changes.

Second, academic discipline development and talent cultivation: Promote the integration of disciplines such as climatology, ecology, and geology, cultivate strategic and tactical scientists as well as promising young talent, strengthen international cooperation, and initiate global research programs.